An Analysis of Margaret Atwoods Siren Song Essay examples -- Siren So

An Analysis of Margaret Atwoods Siren SongThroughout her many years as a poet, Margaret Atwood has dealt with a potpourri of subjects within the spectrum of race dynamics and the way men and women behave in romantic association. In much of her poetry, Atwood has addressed the topics of female subjugation in correlation with male domination, single dynamics, and even female domination over males within the invisible boundaries of romantic relationships. With every poem written, Atwoods method for conveying the message of the poem has remained cryptic. She uses a variety of poetic devices - sometimes layered quite thickly - to communicate those themes dealing with human emotion. In the poem, Siren Song, Margaret Atwood employs such devices as imagery and tone to record and comment on the role of the dominating siren that some women choose to play in their relationships. Siren Song opens with the feel that the reader has just walked into a story being told by the vocaliser. It even seems to give the effect of literally walking a few moments late into a storytelling session. In this particular session, the speaker seems to be a woman portraying herself as a siren of ancient Greek lore. In literature, these mythological beings are most frequently expound as creatures with the face of a woman and the feathered body of a bird, cursed to comprise as such by the goddess Demeter. They were cursed for having stood by during the puss of Demeters daughter Persephone, when Hades whisked her away to the underworld. The sirens supposedly lived on a series of rocky islands and, with the irresistible charm of their songs, they lured mariners to their destruction on the rocks surrounding the islands. The ima... ... with them without denying herself the right to exist on her own terms. She does non fear her own nature, and she is not afraid to play the dominant role. Being a siren, though, means never truly acquiring close to anyone - victims do not last long - and so, o n some level, her words must be double-edged. She may not be afraid and she may not regret the so-called deaths of these men, but she does seem to regret the death of something else. Perhaps this something else is her own heart, now seemingly incapable of normal sentiment. This siren may not only be a portrait of a specific female role in romantic relationships, but she may also be a form of commentary on that role. The siren may also be seen as a depiction of the loneliness that stems from toying with the human heart. With her song, she provides a warning to the readers about the fate that follows such games.

Thanksgiving :: essays research papers

Thanksgiving DayIn todays meeting, the President of the United States of America, George W. Bush, officially announced he is having a Thanksgiving party at his ranch in Crawford, Texas this weekend. Throughout the day, invitations were sent out all over the White House. My body grew tremendously excited at the possibility that maybe this category I would be invited. My partner Bill walked in with his invitation in his hand, wagged it around as though it were merely nothing to him and then threw it aimlessly towards the trash posterior precisely missed. My eyes grew large as I was extremely angered by the offense he had just committed in front of me. To my surprise, he caught my severe look and politely asked, Would you rather go instead of me? I could simply change the name without anyone k instantlying. The tension on my face began to ease as I looked up at him from my seat and to my amusement my lips formed a strong smile in answer to his question. The process took only a bunc o moment unless in that date I carefully observed the paper in Bills hand and couldnt help but notice its beauty. The thickness of the card clearly showed its expense and the soft colors of the shade blue played along the edges of the card, showing its artistic side for the affair. And now I was a member. Once I got to my apartment I called my family back home to tell them about the exciting news. Father wasnt home but the message was reassured to get through to him, making sure plans were still set. I packed everything I thought I would need and headed off to sleep. My legs trembled as they always did at times like these and before I knew it the sunlight crept into my bedroom, slowly covering it completely. Now, it was time to go. I arrived at the ranch on time with everybody else so that I would blend in. There stood President Bush, his lovely wife Laura and the adorable twins Barbara and Jenna. It was the twins 23rd birthday as well, so the celebration was going to be a big hit . On the left side of the President stood everybody else from his team like Vice President Richard B.Cheney, Defense depositary Rumsfeld, Secretary of State Powell, and National Security Advisor Rice. The Vice President seemed happy and eager to eat as he kept rubbing his multitude belly.

Richard Florida’s The Rise of the Creative Class and Joy Malnar and Frank Vodvarka’s Sensory Design :: Creativity Sensory Design Rise Creative Essays

Richard Floridas The Rise of the Creative Class and Joy Malnar and Frank Vodvarkas afferent Design Of all my positive attributes, creativity is not unrivalled of them. I think of creativity as the ability to come up with new things, use ones imagination to create beauty, induce laughter, and/or provoke emotion. My jokes are always corny, my drawing skills are comparable to a toddlers, and I suck at telling stories. Creative definitely does not describe me. Richard Florida, in The Rise of the Creative Class, describes creativity as a separate entity from intelligence, and I totally agree. He also describes it as something acquired through experience. I have always been a nerd, but that doesnt make me a creative psycheand my tunnel vision hasnt helped either. Florida mocked me with these words Creativity is favored by an intellect that has been enriched with diverse experiences and perspectives. I thought that creativity was something you were born with, and that I just wasnt present when God was giving it out. Florida describes that theory as the romantic myth of creative genius, and says that creativity is inherent in all people. Ordinary abilities nurture creativity. I never thought of it that way. Richard Florida also goes on to say that creativity is energy-absorbing, tiring work. To come to think of it, it can be very laborious. My husband likes to endeavor clothing, and sometimes he stares into space for hours daydreaming. Suddenly, hed sprint into the bedroom, grab his notebook and start drawing. He could eat up a whole pencil, eraser and all, for that one drawing. Beads of sweat would form on his brow, and the nerve in the middle of his forehead would protrude. And Id know to keep our daughter away and cave in him at peace. You see, I think my husband is creative. Hes got a great sense of humor, and hes an artist. Geniuses like Isaac Newton and Albert Einstein and doubting Thomas Edison were not only smart, but they also devised new theories, solved mathematical mysteries, and pioneered new gadgets.

Background Information about The Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905 :: Russian Japan History Foreign Affairs Essays

Background Information about The Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905By 1905, a revolution was immanent, tsars power was to be challenged and the reasons for this atomic number 18 to be laid out here in this essay. Was the Tsars non-reformist attitude solely to blame or was the nature of Tsardom destined to destroy itself? We need to look at the foundations of the revolution in order to fully understand this and make an informed response to these questions. The foundations are laid out into five main parts, including short and long-term factors. The two main long-term factors being that the Tsar alienated many of the forkes within Russia and his policy of non-reform led to repression. As these factors developed, other incidents became short-term factors. The failure in the Japanese War was a huge blow to Tsardom and undermined their ethos that Tsardom was the right regime for Russia and the political jet that came as the Tsar relaxed censorship brought an avalanche of criticism for T sardom. Finally, the humiliation at Port Arthur triggered the protest at the Winter Palace, which developed into Bloody Sunday and was the experience of the revolution. Investigating the first of the long-term factors causing the revolution, it seemed necessary to go back to examine the structure of Tsarist Russia pre-1905 to get a fuller picture. This period represent a problem for Nicholas II. The regime itself reinforced any class divisions from the bureaucracy to the peasants and alienated them even further. As, the truth is Nicholas was never in touch with the common people. He never knew what it was like to worry where the next meal was coming from. He never had to. He did not understand the way that Russia worked in practise. He could not, or would not, empathise with the peasants hardships of the land and his ideas of Russias troubles were laughable. Consequently, by 1905 he had estranged his subjects, including even some of the aristocracy folk that had been so loyal to Tsardom in the past. They were a class in decline and it was partly due to the Tsars incompetence. Owing to Russias economic backwardness, the landowners found it almost impossible to farm for a profit. The gentry had no market for their produce, as their target market was near penniless and thus could not afford to purchase crops from the landowners. The Tsar did little to rectify the built in bed and in fact took land off the gentry following the emancipation of the Serfs and issued bonds, which were effectively I.

Organic Biofumigants Essay -- Agriculture Biology Farming Farm Essays

Organic BiofumigantsIn recent years, production of many crops has become inhibited by taking several herbicides and pesticides off the market. If a manufacturing business wishes to be in organic production, this is even further inhibited by products useable to stay deep down organic guidelines. Biofumigants are basically any product used to control pests and competing weed species within a crop. This has become a hurdle for many producers receivable to labeling issues as well as the desire to keep the crops and their land feasible for organic production. There has been a great deal of research and discoveries pertaining to alternative methods of overbearing the crop inhibitors (widows weeds and pests) in a more organic matter. Organic biofumigants have become one of the most feasible options for carrying out this daunting task. A astronomic problem that todays producers face is the control of nematode populations. Certain crop rotation systems may greatly increase the control a p roducer has over these problems. There are several crops that arouse be implemented into a rotation that can perform several tasks including bio-fuel production and the control of pests and weeds organically. According to Klein et al. (2006), glucosinolates are natural products that when degraded in a soil can have profound impacts on the defense of insects and fungi invading a crop. Many of the crops that contain glucosinolates are in the Brassicaceae family. One of the most popular cover crops for the purpose of releasing glucosinolates is mustard and its different varieties. Mustard can be planted as a cover crop before several different crops. The crops that we found to benefit the most from this type of system were tap-root crops much(prenominal) as potatoes and sugar beets. ... ... Mohammad , Akhtar, Abdul Malik. Roles of organic soil amendments and soil organisms in the biological control of plant-parasitic nematodes a review . Bioresource Technology Volume 74. Issue 1.August 2000 Pages 35-47 . 03/27/07 5&_user=2532480&_coverDate=08%2F31%2F2000&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000057783&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=2532480&md5=0f8465d8d83ce62f9ccf3fa585e54c76. Zasada, I.A. and Ferris, H.. Nematode suppression with brassicaceous amendments application. Department of Nematology, University of California 18 February 2003 3/27/07 .Wilson, D. lambast Mutualism. Given 28 March 2007. University of Wyoming Department of Agriculture.

Enviromental Effects on Behavior Essay -- essays research papers

The level of genetic influences on a persons behavior is called the heritability of the behavior. Based on previous explore intelligence as careful by IQ scores is thought to be attributed mostly to genetic influences. However it has been suggested by several researchers that genetic influences argon moderated by the environment a person grows up in. There ware been several studies that have explored the effects of environmental effects on heritability. However these studies have been methodologically limited because they did not have a large enough sample size or they did not measure the zygosity of the twins they use. Other studies measured change in heritability across opposite birth cohorts. However these studies might have been influenced by the different circumstances that might have been present during the different time periods these people lived in.Some general reasons why there is a lack of evidence for the moderating effects of the environment is that the studies conducted so far did not use measures environmental variables to detect differences in the environm...

The Benefits of Having a Greenhouse Essay -- Essays Papers

The Benefits of Having a GreenhouseThere are many benefits of having a greenhouse or bob uping space attached to the average family home. A well-built greenhouse can utilize solar power in such a way that it becomes a positive addition to the household in all way. Greenhouses present an opportunity for everyone to be able to grow some of their own food, save electricity, gain practical experience, and soothe their mind and body. Throughout history gardens commit served as a food source for families. Collecting and preserving the summer harvest provided a large part of the food for families all over the world. The nutrients contained in vegetables and payoff are very important for good health, and can enrich financially limited diets. During World War Two the American Government encouraged citizens to grow Victory Gardens in their backyard. These gardens would be full of vegetables to help families through financially difficult clippings.Not only do gardens provide fruits , vegetables, spices and flowers for people in time of need, but they acquire been proven to help relieve stress. Many emotional trade facilities have gardens where the patients can subject field in the soil, water, and help take care of the plants. The simple mindless effort that goes into caring for plants is soothing, and allows people to relax their mind while using their body. Patients in physical therapy are also encouraged to work in gardens. There are many activities in gardening that can be done with little strength or flexibility. Many retirement communities have also started gardens on their property to encourage their residents to spend time caring for the plants. In areas such as Vermont the growing season is so short that the benefits of simp... ...ds the local anaesthetic lumberyard, and the local nursery. The reduction in petrochemical savings is important, for both financial and environmental reasons. Eating food fresh from a ain garden grown, cared for, picke d and eaten by the said(prenominal) person is an enormously satisfying experience. The benefits to having a solar greenhouse are numerous, and varied. The financial, health, emotional, and environmental benefits are great, and more than enough reason to build a personal greenhouse.BibliographyEnergy Saving Urban Greenhouses for Canada. Research Branch. Agriculture Canada. Printed by Ministry of Supply and Services. Publication 1814-E. 1987.Yanda, Bill and Rick Fisher. The Food and Heat Producing Solar Greenhouse. John Muir Publications, Inc. USA. 1976A Brief History of Solar Energy. April 5 1999. www.uccs.edu/energy/courses/160lectures/solhist.htm.

A Speakers Reflections Essay -- essays research papers

A Speakers ReflectionsRobert Haydens poem Those pass Sundays is a reflection the speaker has regarding his father. An analysis of the poems tvirtuoso and language reveals the speaker afflictions his father did so much for the family and no one ever thanked him. It is obvious the speaker feels regret for the way he behaved toward his father in the past by examining the phrases in the poem, particularly with the description of the father. The connotations of the language use in this description denote the father in a certain way that the speaker did not see him as before. The tone and feeling of regret or sorrow is evident in the poem not only through language and word choice on the literal surface, but alike in the structure of the poem itself. The poem indicates the father as hardworking by his description. The speaker reveals the father has cracked hands that ached from labor and that Sundays too he got up early to start a fire and warm the house. As if this gesture is not enou gh, Hed call to his family when the rooms were warm so they would not have to endure the blueblack cold of a winter morning. The poem also indicates the father doing other chores, such as polishing my good shoes. This description of the father is moving, it show he loves his family and is thoughtful enough to do the chores no one else would want to do. The word choice for this description is very interesting, howe...

Evaluation of Sources Addressing Sleep and Performance Essay -- Resear

Evaluation of Sources Addressing Sleep and PerformanceSleep loss and shifting sleep patterns are known to be widespread across college campuses throughout the United States and the world at large. Yet, while many studies exist relating sleep to performance, a much smaller amount of studies focus on the Through analysis of these sources as they would prove useful when researching and writing upon the idea of sleep and its correlation to academic performance it was appoint that a paper titled Sleep-Wake Patterns and Academic Performance in University Students, which was presented to the European Conference on Educational Research, is overall the most useful source equal to research the topic.While points, claims, and statistics may be found within all of the sources used for the research, the sheer amount of referenced studies and works within the Sleep-Wake paper lends fish to its usefulness as a reliable source. One of the otherfactor of sleep and its affect within the college c ommunity. Three sources varying in criteria and usefulness were found that link to this subject and were studied. sources, College Students try to have a go at it Sleep Needs, a college newspaper, offers basic facts and elementary assumptions such that could be found within any biology textual matter or encyclopedia. These references are to such things as sleep cycles and sub stages and the general consequences of an out of balance sleep cycle. The study from the Biological Rhythm Research writers, however, hints at previous studies and findings that several factors, such as social and academic demands, part-time jobs, ... affect the sleep-wake cycle of college students. but then only states the findings of a particular study, and does so in... ...tive sources. As seen by its thoroughness, and attention to detail and reliability by its specialized writers, this paper is the most useful location for information regarding the topic. Works CitedAnderson, Ph.D., Keith J. College St udents try to Cheat Sleep Needs. Polytechnic Online. 13 Feb. 2002. 2 Feb. 2004. .Gomes, Ana Allen, Jose Taveres, and Maria Helena Azevedo. Sleep-Wake Patterns and Academic Performance in University Students. 7 Oct. 2002 7. Education-Line Database. 2 Feb. 2004. Medeiros, Ana Ligia D., et al. Relationships Between Sleep-Wake Cycles and Academic Performance in Medical Students. Biological Rhythm Research. 32.2 (2001) 263-270. 2 Feb. 2004. .

Kings :: essays research papers

Volume 1 Inferno Cantos I - XICanto I Halfway through his life, DANTE THE PILGRIM wakes to find himself lost in the dark wood. Terrified at being alone in so dismal a valley, he wanders until he comes to a hill bathed in sunlight, and his worry begins to leave him. But when he starts to climb the hill his lane is blocked by three fierce beasts first a LEOPARD, then a LION, and at last a SHE-WOLF. They fill him with fear and drive him back down to the sunless wood. At that moment the figure of a man appears before him it is the shade of VIRGIL, and the Pilgrim begs for help. Virgil tells him that he can not overcome the beasts which obstruct his path they must remain until a GREYHOUND comes who will drive them back to Hell. Rather by another path will the Pilgrim reach the sunlight, and Virgil promises to guide him on that path through Hell and Purgatory, after which another spirit, more fit that Virgil, will lead him to Paradise. The Pilgrim begs Virgil to lead on, and the carr y starts ahead. The Pilgrim follows. View a Picture of Dante Lost in the Dark Wood View a Picture of The Lion Confronting DanteNotes on Canto I Early critics of Dante view that the three beasts that block the Pilgrims path as signising three specific sins lust, pride and avarice, but it may be that they represent the three major divisions of Hell. The spotted leopard represents Fraud and reigns over the Eighth and Ninth Circles, w here(predicate) the Fraudulent are punished. The Lion symbolises all forms of Violence, which are punished in the Seventh Circle. The she-wolf represents the different types of eros or Incontinence, which are punished in Circles Two to Five. In any case the beasts must represent the three major categories of human sin, and they threaten Dante the Pilgrim, the poets symbol of mankind. It is impossible to understand all of the allegory in the First Canto without having read the entire Comedy because Canto I is, in a sense, a miniature of the whole, and th e themes that Dante introduces here will be the major themes of the entire work. Thus this canto is perhaps the most important of the entire work. This Canto explains that Dante must choose another road because, in enounce to arrive at the Divine Light, it is necessary first to recognise the true nature of sin, renounce it, and do penance for it.

Kings :: essays research papers

Volume 1 Inferno Cantos I - XICanto I Halfway through his life, DANTE THE PILGRIM wakes to find himself lost in the dark wood. terrified at being alone in so dismal a valley, he wanders until he comes to a hill bathed in sunlight, and his fear begins to leave him. yet when he starts to climb the hill his path is regular hexahedroned by three fierce beasts first a LEOPARD, then a LION, and finally a SHE-WOLF. They take up him with fear and drive him back down to the sunless wood. At that moment the figure of a man appears before him it is the shade of VIRGIL, and the Pilgrim begs for help. Virgil tells him that he can non overcome the beasts which obstruct his path they must remain until a GREYHOUND comes who will drive them back to Hell. Rather by another path will the Pilgrim pretend the sunlight, and Virgil promises to guide him on that path through Hell and Purgatory, after which another spirit, more fit that Virgil, will lead him to Paradise. The Pilgrim begs Virgil to le ad on, and the Guide starts ahead. The Pilgrim follows. View a Picture of Dante Lost in the Dark Wood View a Picture of The Lion Confronting DanteNotes on Canto I Early critics of Dante thought that the three beasts that block the Pilgrims path as symbolising three specific sins lust, pride and avarice, but it may be that they represent the three major divisions of Hell. The spotted leopard represents boloney and reigns over the Eighth and Ninth Circles, where the Fraudulent be punished. The Lion symbolises all forms of Violence, which are punished in the Seventh Circle. The she-wolf represents the different types of Concupiscence or Incontinence, which are punished in Circles Two to Five. In any case the beasts must represent the three major categories of human sin, and they threaten Dante the Pilgrim, the poets symbol of mankind. It is impossible to find out all of the allegory in the First Canto without having read the entire Comedy because Canto I is, in a sense, a miniature of the whole, and the themes that Dante introduces here will be the major themes of the entire work. Thus this canto is perhaps the most important of the entire work. This Canto explains that Dante must choose another road because, in order to arrive at the Divine Light, it is necessary first to recognise the true nature of sin, renounce it, and do penance for it.

A simple index number :: Economics

A simple index numberIndex numbers is a number that expresses the relative change in legal injury,quantity, or value from one period to another (1).Price index number = cost of basket in current period x snowcost of basket in base periodAn index number provides a quantitative description of change overtime - how much annex? How much decrease?Market researchers are also using index numbers are also using indexnumbers to compare a research result with an overall norm, to measurehow the investment, specially in advertise industry, are working.How changes in these figures are related to the current economy asadvertising is promoted as an engine that drives the economy ratherthan a supplement?2. A composite index2.1 Laspeyres Price IndexThe most commonly used plodding worth index is the Laspeyres PriceIndex named after its inventor. It is a plodding aggregate price indexthat uses the quantities in the base period/ year as weights (Harper,1991,p215). In essence, Laspeyres price ind ex for the year measuredshows the extent of price changes since base year on the assumptionthat the expenditure pattern was the same in the year measured as inbase year. Thus, only price is allowed to change and the index for thecurrent period reflects this price.2.2 Paasche Price IndexAnother weighted price index is the Paasche Price Index, which usesthe current quantity weights and adjusts the base each time a newperiod is considered. It is a weighted aggregate price index that usesthe quantities in the current year as the weights (Harper, 1991,p215).Paasche price index shows the changes assuming the expenditure patternwas the same in base year as in the year measured.2.3 Advantages and LimitationsBoth the Laspeyres index and the Paasche index have advantages andlimitations, as indicated following2.3.1 AdvantagesLaspeyres index Easy to calculate. The Laspeyres index is the more convenient to use on a continuing basis, because the weights of base year remain fixed. It potty be ea sier and cheaper to produce since the only quantities required are for the base period. Laspeyres where the same base weights can be used for a number of periods making it less demanding of data. As the weights dont change period to period (fixed basket) it can be considered to show exclusively price (or quantity) change (1).Paasche index------------- Uses quantities from the current period, thus reflects current buying habits2.3.2 LimitationsLaspeyres index It cannot be used if quantities are unobtainable. Laspeyres, as time moves on the fixed basket becomes less relevant.Paasche index There can be a mass of statistical data requirement, as Paasche

Israel: A Blessing to All Nations

I will make of you a great nation? And you shall be a ratifying? And all the families of the earth shall bless themselves by you (Gen. 122-3). Israel is a blessing to the other nations. As long as Israel succeeds in informing other peoples and proving that Yahweh is immortal, it will be understood to be a blessing to these nations. The very interpreters often employed to dispel the idea of Israels being a blessing serve as evidence to include it. The plagues in Genesis actually prove that Yahweh is graven image to the Israelites and the Egyptians.In the infamous conquest of Canaan, Rahab and her family are spared because she acknowledges that Yahweh is God. Joseph gathers food to feed the Egyptians during the 7 years of famine. Throughout the Hebraical Bible, the Israelites relationship with other nations ultimately leads its peoples to benefit by the realization that Yahweh is God. At first, Israels relationship with the Egyptians does not seem to be a blessing however, The P lagues return in the Egyptians ultimately perceiving Yahweh as God.God, so that the Egyptians shall know that I am Lord (Exodus 73,5), puts the Egyptians through a gauntlet, comprised of some of the worst conceivable ills that buttocks befall man. When God states that He will bring down a hail storm, Pharaohs courtiers, ? who feared the Lords word brought their slaves and livestock indoors to resort (920). This quotation signals a change in faith previously, Pharoahs courtiers did not pay attention to Moses premonitions. Gradually though, the courtiers begin to take notice of Yahwehs power.Similarly, God vows to unleash locusts all over the land. Pharaohs courtiers become increasingly involved with Pharoahs decisions and favor accepting the Israelites to leave ? how long shall this one be a snare to us? Let the men go to worship the Lord our God (107) Examined carefully, the quotation reads the Lord our God. Even though the entire nation does not, Pharaohs courtiers accept Ya hweh as their God. In a similar manner, Israels conquest of Canaan, at Jericho, reaffirms Israels status as a blessing.While hiding the two Israelite spies, Rahab confides, I know that the Lord has given the country to you? for the Lord your God is the only God in heaven above and on earth below (Josh. 29,11). Rahab is a harlot, whom one would presume to be anything but pious. When Israel destroys Jericho, only Rahab the harlot and her fathers family were spared? and she dwelt among the Israelites? (625). This quotation highlights two important notions the composes superior of stating her fathers family, can be interpreted as her immediate family or a larger group of people who also accept Yahweh.Secondly, Rahabs dwelling among the Israelites is a classic example of how the inhabitants of other nations remain and become a part of Israel. By remaining with the Israelites, Rahab embraces the fact that their God is the one and only God. excessively part of Israels conquest of Ca naan, are the events surrounding the city of Gibeon. Upon seeing what Israel had done to Jericho, ? the people of Gibeon had come to terms with Israel and remained among them? (Joshua 102). This is yet another example of people from other nations accepting Yahweh and becoming a part of Israel.Without having directly experienced what Yahweh is capable of, the Gibeonites immediately identify Him as God. When Joshua arrives with Israel, and realizing what the kings rightful(a) intentions are, commands, Stand still, O sun, at Gibeon,/ O moon, in the Valley of Aijalon (1012). Miraculously halting these supernatural forces, Joshua defeats all five armies and kills the kings. These marvels further strengthen the peoples faith in Yahweh and prove again that Israel is a blessing to the cities of Canaan. (israel proves to be a blessing to Canaan because it reveals to Canaans people the one certain God)Proving that he himself is a blessing to the Egyptians, Joseph saves Egypt and its surro unding nations, from death and starvation. Joseph prophesizes that there will be septenary years of abundance? After them will come seven years of famine (Genesis 4129), and proposes that someone be in charge of gathering food to be used during the famine. Though Joseph is an Israelite, Pharoah puts him in charge of the life-saving task. however as Joseph foretells, There was famine in the land, but throughout the land of Egypt there was bread? So all the world came to Joseph in Egypt to procure rations? (4154, 57).In the above quotation, Joseph is portrayed as a godlike figure who saves the world from starvation, thus proving himself to be a blessing to the Egyptians and Canaanites. In addition to these cases, in which a named group of people (Pharaohs courtiers, Rahab, the Gibeonites) are enlightened to Yahwehs existence, there are other instances in which unnamed groups of citizens proves Israel to be a blessing. As Israel in conclusion departs from Egypt, the author describe s how there are about six thousand men on foot, aside from children. Moreover, a mixed multitude went up with them? (Exodus 1237-38).The author specifically mentions that a mixed multitude, which is understood to mean non-Israelites, joins the Israelites and recognizes Yahweh as God. In I Samuel, Israel is at conflict with the Philistines and has suffered a defeat because the Ark of the Lord is in battle of Shiloh and not with the Israelites. Upon hearing Israels joyous shouts, the Philistines become frightened and question, God has come to the camp? Who will save us from the power of this mighty God (47-8)? The inhabitants of other nations previously refer to Yahweh, as the God of Israel or the God of the Hebrews. However, in this quotation, the Philistines refer to Yahweh as if they are speaking of their own god, by omitting a distinction of whom He rules. After Israel captures Edom, ? all the Edomites became vassals of David (II Sam. 814). Initially, this is capture is not s een as a blessing. However, after examining what nations typically did after capturing another nation, Israel is truly a blessing, because not only did Israel refrain from destroying, robbing, and murdering the citizens and the city, but instead appointed them to official positions.Israels conquests prove to be a blessing to other nations, as they allow the peoples to live by accepting Yahweh as God. Though Israels actions may not initially allow it to be apparent, Israel is a blessing to other nations. It is honest that many people suffer, some innocently and others because they chose not to accept Yahweh as God. However, the Tanakh says it is much better to die with the truth, than it is to live in ignorance.

Decision Making Tools

P A R T I V QUANTITATIVE staffS Quantitative faculty finding-Making Tools A Module Out trendTHE DECISION PROCESS IN OPERATIONS FUNDAMENTALS OF DECISION MAKING DECISION TABLES TYPES OF DECISION-MAKING ENVIRONMENTS c doze off Making Under Un proof conclusion Making Under adventure Decision Making Under consequence pass judgment Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) DECISION TREES A More thickening Decision manoeuver Using Decision Trees in Ethical Decision Making SUMMARY KEY TERMS USING SOFTWARE FOR DECISION MODELS work out PROBLEMS INTERNET AND STUDENT CD-ROM EXERCISES DISCUSSION QUESTIONS PROBLEMS INTERNET HOMEWORK PROBLEMS CASE STUDIES TOM TUCKERS LIVER TRANSPLANT SKI RIGHT CORP. supplemental CASE STUDIES BIBLIOGRAPHY L EARNING O BJECTIVESWhen you sleep together this module you should be able to IDENTIFY OR DEFINE Decision trees and decisiveness put backs Highest m itary apprise pass judgment encourage of unblemished instruction Sequential finales DESCRIBE OR EXPL AIN Decision making beneath risk Decision making under suspicion Decision making under certainty 674 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S The wildcatters ending was a tough superstar. Which of his natural Kentucky train atomic number 18asBlair East or Blair Westshould he drill for oil? A wrong determination in this type of wildcat oil drilling could crocked the difference amid success and bankruptcy for the company.Talk about ratiocination making under uncertainty and pres for certain But development a finis tree, Tomco oil colour President Thomas E. Blair identified 74 different options, each with its own potence bring in profit. What had begun as an overwhelming number of geological, engineering, economic, and political factors now became a great deal cle atomic number 18r. Says Blair, Decision tree analysis provided us with a systematic way of supply these endings and clearer insight into the numerous and varied financial outcomes that are possible. 1 The dividing line executive is by profession a finish compelr. Uncertainty is his opp adeptnt. Over attack it is his mission. John McDonaldOperations managers are finale makers. To achieve the goals of their organizations, managers mustiness(prenominal) understand how decisivenesss are made and spang which decision-making bills to use. To a great extent, the success or failure of some(prenominal) people and companies depends on the look of their decisions. Bill Gates, who developed the DOS and Windows operating systems, became chairman of the nigh powerful software product firm in the world (Microsoft) and a billionaire. In contrast, the Firestone manager who headed the team that designed the flawed tires that caused so legion(predicate) accidents with Ford Explorers in the late 1990s is non working in that respect anymore.THE DECISION PROCESS IN OPERATIONS What makes the difference between a good decision and a bad decision? A good decisionone that uses analytic d ecision makingis based on logic and considers some(prenominal) available entropy and possible substitutes. It similarly follows these six travel 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Clearly define the problem and the factors that influence it. Develop specific and measurable objectives. Develop a mock upthat is, a relationship between objectives and variables (which are measurable quantities). Evaluate each pick solution based on its merits and drawbacks.Select the take up alternative. Implement the decision and set a time circumvent for completion. Throughout this book, we energize introduced a broad range of mathematical models and tools to help operations managers make better decisions. Effective operations depend on attentive decision making. Fortunately, there are a whole variety of analytic tools to help make these decisions. This modHosseini, Decision Analysis and Its Application in the Choice between Two Wildcat Ventures, Interfaces, Vol. 16, no. 2. Reprinted by permission, INFORMS, 901 Elkridge Landing Road, Suite 400, Linthicum, Mary bring in 21090 USA. J. D E C I S I O N TA B L E S Management essence, in the last analysis, the substitution of thought for brawn and muscle, of knowledge for folklore and tradition, and of cooperation for force. Peter Drucker 675 ule introduces two of themdecision submits and decision trees. They are used in a wide number of OM situations, ranging from new-product analysis (Chapter 5), to capacity planning (Supplement 7), to location planning (Chapter 8), to scheduling (Chapter 15), and to maintenance planning (Chapter 17). FUNDAMENTALS OF DECISION MAKINGRegard little of the complexity of a decision or the sophistication of the technique used to analyze it, all decision makers are faced with alternatives and res publicas of nature. The avocation notation pass on be used in this module 1. Terms a. Alternativea course of action or strategy that may be chosen by a decision maker (for example, not carrying an umbrella tomorr ow). b. State of naturean occurrence or a situation over which the decision maker has little or no control (for example, tomorrows weather). Symbols used in a decision tree a. decision node from which one of salwaysal alternatives may be selected. b. a state-of-nature node out of which one state of nature depart occur. 2. To array a managers decision alternatives, we fag end develop decision trees apply the above symbols. When constructing a decision tree, we must be sure that all alternatives and states of nature are in their crystallize and logical places and that we include all possible alternatives and states of nature. pattern A1 A simple decision tree Getz Products Company is investigating the possibility of producing and commercializeing backyard transshipment center sheds.Undertaking this thrust would require the construction of either a super or a s sum manufacturing go under. The securities industry for the product producedstorage shedscould be either favourab le or un lucky. Getz, of course, has the option of not developing the new product line at all. A decision tree for this situation is presented in Figure A. 1. A decision node A state of nature node Favorable martplace 1 Unfavorable grocery Favorable merchandise 2 Unfavorable securities industry no thi ng uct t str on plan C e g lar Construct secondary congeal Do FIGURE A. 1 I Getz Products Decision Tree DECISION TABLES Decision tableA tabular means of analyzing decision alternatives and states of nature. We may in like manner develop a decision or issue table to help Getz Products define its alternatives. For any alternative and a particular state of nature, there is a consequence or outcome, which is usually expressed as a pecuniary value. This is called a qualified value. Note that all of the alternatives in Example A2 are listed down the leave side of the table, that states of nature (outcomes) are listed across the top, and that experimental conditional determine (payo ffs) are in the body of the decision table. 676 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L SWe construct a decision table for Getz Products (Table A. 1), including conditional values based on the following knowledge. With a favorable market, a king-size speediness ordain give Getz Products a net profit of $200,000. If the market is unfavorable, a $180,000 net difference give occur. A small whole kit and boodle will solution in a net profit of $100,000 in a favorable market, entirely a net outlet of $20,000 will be encountered if the market is unfavorable. Example A2 A decision table TABLE A. 1 I Decision Table with Conditional Values for Getz Products ALTERNATIVES The toughest part of decision tables is getting the data to analyze.Construct large congeal Construct small industrial plant Do nothing STATES OF spirit FAVORABLE securities industry UNFAVORABLE MARKET $200,000 $100,000 $ 0 $180,000 $ 20,000 $ 0 In Examples A3 and A4, we see how to use decision tables. TYPE S OF DECISION-MAKING ENVIRONMENTS The types of decisions people make depend on how some(prenominal) knowledge or information they have about the situation. There are three decision-making environments Decision making under uncertainty Decision making under risk Decision making under certainty Decision Making Under UncertaintyWhen there is complete uncertainty as to which state of nature in a decision environment may occur (that is, when we fecal matternot even assess probabilities for each possible outcome), we rely on three decision regularitys Maximax A measurement that finds an alternative that maximizes the maximum outcome. Maximin A cadence that finds an alternative that maximizes the minimum outcome. Equally likely A criterion that assigns equal bechance to each state of nature. Maximaxthis method finds an alternative that maximizes the maximum outcome for e precise alternative.First, we find the maximum outcome at heart every alternative, and therefore we pick the alternative with the maximum number. Because this decision criterion locates the alternative with the highest possible gain, it has been called an hopeful decision criterion. 2. Maximinthis method finds the alternative that maximizes the minimum outcome for every alternative. First, we find the minimum outcome within every alternative, and then we pick the alternative with the maximum number. Because this decision criterion locates the alternative that has the least possible deviation, it has been called a pessimistic decision criterion. . Equally likelythis method finds the alternative with the highest average outcome. First, we calculate the average outcome for every alternative, which is the sum of all outcomes divided by the number of outcomes. We then pick the alternative with the maximum number. The as likely approach assumes that each state of nature is equally likely to occur. Example A3 applies each of these approaches to the Getz Products Company. 1. Example A3 A decis ion table analysis under uncertainty Given Getzs decision table of Example A2, determine the maximax, maximin, nd equally likely decision criteria (see Table A. 2). TABLE A. 2 I Decision Table for Decision Making under Uncertainty STATES OF genius FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE MARKET MARKET $200,000 $100,000 $ 0 $180,000 $20,000 $ 0 MAXIMUM IN ROW $200,000 $100,000 $ 0 Maximax MINIMUM IN ROW $180,000 $20,000 $ 0 Maximin ROW AVERAGE $10,000 $40,000 $ 0 Equally likely ALTERNATIVES There are optimistic decision makers (maximax) and pessimistic ones (maximin). Maximax and maximin present best caseworst case planning scenarios. Construct large plant Construct small plant Do nothingTYPES 1. 2. 3. OF D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G E N V I RO N M E N T S 677 The maximax choice is to construct a large plant. This is the maximum of the maximum number within each row, or alternative. The maximin choice is to do nothing. This is the maximum of the minimum number within each row, or alternative. The equa lly likely choice is to construct a small plant. This is the maximum of the average outcome of each alternative. This approach assumes that all outcomes for any alternative are equally likely. Decision Making Under Risk Expected monetary value (EMV)The pass judgment payout or value of a variable that has different possible states of nature, each with an associated probability. Decision making under risk, a more common occurrence, relies on probabilities. Several possible states of nature may occur, each with an assumed probability. The states of nature must be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive and their probabilities must sum to 1. 2 Given a decision table with conditional values and probability assessments for all states of nature, we shadower determine the pass judgment monetary value (EMV) for each alternative.This figure represents the expected value or mean kick in for each alternative if we could repeat the decision a large number of times. The EMV for an a lternative is the sum of all possible payoffs from the alternative, each weighted by the probability of that payoff occurring. EMV (Alternative i ) = ( Payoff of first state of nature) ? (Probability of inaugural state of nature) + (Payoff of 2nd state of nature) ? (Probability of 2nd state of nature) + L + (Payoff of last state of nature) ? (Probability of last state of nature) Example A4 illustrates how to compute the maximum EMV. Example A4Expected monetary value Excel OM Data File ModAEx4. xla Getz Products operations manager weighs that the probability of a favorable market is exactly the same as that of an unfavorable market that is, each state of nature has a . 50 chance of occurring. We can now determine the EMV for each alternative (see Table A. 3) 1. 2. 3. EMV(A1) = (. 5)($200,000) + (. 5)( $180,000) = $10,000 EMV(A2) = (. 5)($100,000) + (. 5)( $20,000) = $40,000 EMV(A3) = (. 5)($0) + (. 5)($0) = $0 The maximum EMV is seen in alternative A2. Thus, according to the EMV d ecision criterion, Getz would puddle up the small ease. TABLE A. I Decision Table for Getz Products ALTERNATIVES Construct large plant (A1) Construct small plant (A2) Do nothing (A3) Probabilities STATES OF NATURE FAVORABLE MARKET UNFAVORABLE MARKET $200,000 $100,000 $ 0 . 50 $180,000 $ 20,000 $ 0 . 50 Decision Making Under Certainty Now suppose that the Getz operations manager has been approached by a marketing seek firm that proposes to help him make the decision about whether to build the plant to produce storage sheds. The marketing researchers claim that their technical analysis will tell Getz with certainty whether the market is favorable for the proposed product.In other words, it will change Getzs environment from one of decision making under risk to one of decision making under certainty. This information could prevent Getz from making a very expensive mistake. The marketing research firm would charge Getz $65,000 for the information. What would you recommend? Should th e operations manager hire the firm to make the contract? Even if the information from the study is betterly accurate, is it worth $65,000? What might it be worth? Although some of these questions are difficult to answer, 2To EVPI places an upper limit on what you should pay for information. eview these and other statistical terms, confabulate to the CD-ROM Tutorial 1, Statistical Review for Managers. 678 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S determining the value of such utter(a) information can be very useful. It places an upper bound on what you would be willing to spend on information, such as that being sold by a marketing consultant. This is the concept of the expected value of perfect information (EVPI), which we now introduce. Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) Expected value of perfect information (EVPI) The difference between the payoff under certainty and the payoff under risk.If a manager were able to determine which state of nature would occur, t hen he or she would know which decision to make. Once a manager knows which decision to make, the payoff increases because the payoff is now a certainty, not a probability. Because the payoff will increase with knowledge of which state of nature will occur, this knowledge has value. Therefore, we now look at how to determine the value of this information. We call this difference between the payoff under certainty and the payoff under risk the expected value of perfect information (EVPI). EVPI = Expected value under certainty Maximum EMVExpected value under certainty The expected (average) return if perfect information is available. To find the EVPI, we must first compute the expected value under certainty, which is the expected (average) return if we have perfect information before a decision has to be made. To calculate this value, we choose the best alternative for each state of nature and compute its payoff times the probability of occurrence of that state of nature. Expected va lue under certainty = (Best outcome or consequence for 1st state of nature) ? (Probability of 1st state of nature) + (Best outcome for 2nd state of nature) ? Probability of 2nd state of nature) + L + (Best outcome for last state of nature) ? (Probability of last state of nature) In Example A5 we use the data and decision table from Example A4 to examine the expected value of perfect information. Example A5 Expected value of perfect information By referring back to Table A. 3, the Getz operations manager can calculate the maximum that he would pay for informationthat is, the expected value of perfect information, or EVPI. He follows a two-stage process. First, the expected value under certainty is computed. Then, using this information, EVPI is calculated.The procedure is outlined as follows 1. The best outcome for the state of nature favorable market is build a large facility with a payoff of $200,000. The best outcome for the state of nature unfavorable market is do nothing with a payoff of $0. Expected value under certainty = ($200,000)(0. 50) + ($0)(0. 50) = $100,000. Thus, if we had perfect information, we would expect (on the average) $100,000 if the decision could be repeated many times. The maximum EMV is $40,000, which is the expected outcome without perfect information. Thus EVPI = Expected value under certainty ? Maximum EMV = $100, 000 ? 40, 000 = $60, 000 In other words, the most Getz should be willing to pay for perfect information is $60,000. This conclusion, of course, is once again based on the assumption that the probability of each state of nature is 0. 50. 2. DECISION TREES Decisions that lend themselves to demo in a decision table also lend themselves to display in a decision tree. We will therefore analyze some decisions using decision trees. Although the use of a decision table is convenient in problems having one set of decisions and one set of states of nature, many problems include incidental decisions and states of nature.When there are two or more accompanying decisions, and later decisions are based on the outcome of prior ones, the decision tree approach becomes appropriate. A decision tree is a graphic display of the decision process that indicates decision alternatives, states of nature and their respective probabilities, and payoffs for each combination of decision alternative and state of nature. Expected monetary value (EMV) is the most unremarkably used criterion for decision tree analysis. One of the first steps in such analysis is to graph the decision tree and to specify the monetary consequences of all outcomes for a particular problem.Decision tree A graphical means of analyzing decision alternatives and states of nature. DECISION TREES Decision tree software is a relatively new advance that permits users to solve decisionanalysis problems with flexibility, power, and ease. Programs such as DPL, Tree Plan, and Supertree allow decision problems to be analyzed with slight effort and in great de pth than ever before. Full-color presentations of the options open to managers always have impact. In this photo, wildcat drilling options are explored with DPL, a product of Syncopation Software. 679 Analyzing problems with decision trees involves five steps 1. 2. . 4. 5. Define the problem. anatomical structure or draw the decision tree. Assign probabilities to the states of nature. Estimate payoffs for each possible combination of decision alternatives and states of nature. Solve the problem by deliberation expected monetary values (EMV) for each state-of-nature node. This is through with(p) by working backwardthat is, by starting at the right of the tree and working back to decision nodes on the left. Example A6 Solving a tree for EMV A completed and solved decision tree for Getz Products is presented in Figure A. 2. Note that the payoffs are placed at the right-hand side of each of the trees branches.The probabilities (first used by Getz in Example A4) are placed in parenthe ses next to each state of nature. The expected monetary values for each state-ofnature node are then calculated and placed by their respective nodes. The EMV of the first node is $10,000. This represents the branch from the decision node to construct a large plant. The EMV for node 2, to construct a small plant, is $40,000. The option of doing nothing has, of course, a payoff of $0. The branch leaving the decision node leading to the state-of-nature node with the highest EMV will be chosen. In Getzs case, a small plant should be built.EMV for node 1 = $10,000 = (. 5) ($200,000) + (. 5) ($180,000) Payoffs Favorable market (. 5) $200,000 Co n ct stru e larg pla nt 1 Unfavorable market (. 5) Favorable market (. 5) 2 Unfavorable market (. 5) $ 20,000 $180,000 $100,000 Construct small plant Do no th in g EMV for node 2 = $40,000 = (. 5) ($100,000) + (. 5) ($20,000) $0 FIGURE A. 2 I Completed and Solved Decision Tree for Getz Products 680 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S A More Complex Decision Tree There is a widespread use of decision trees beyond OM. Managers often appreciate a graphical display of a tough problem.When a sequence of decisions must be made, decision trees are lots more powerful tools than are decision tables. Lets say that Getz Products has two decisions to make, with the second decision dependent on the outcome of the first. Before deciding about construct a new plant, Getz has the option of conducting its own marketing research survey, at a approach of $10,000. The information from this survey could help it find out whether to build a large plant, to build a small plant, or not to build at all. Getz recognizes that although such a survey will not provide it with perfect information, it may be extremely helpful.Getzs new decision tree is represented in Figure A. 3 of Example A7. relieve oneself a careful look at this more complex tree. Note that all possible outcomes and alternatives are included in their logical sequence. Thi s procedure is one of the strengths of using decision trees. The manager is forced to examine all possible outcomes, including unfavorable ones. He or she is also forced to make decisions in a logical, sequential manner. Examining the tree in Figure A. 3, we see that Getzs first decision point is whether to conduct the $10,000 market survey.If it chooses not to do the study (the dispirit part of the tree), it can either build a large plant, a small plant, or no plant. This is Getzs second decision point. If the decision is to build, the market will be either favorable (. 50 probability) or unfavorable (also . 50 probability). The payoffs for each of the possible consequences are listed along the right-hand side. As a matter of fact, this lower portion of Getzs tree is identical to the simpler decision tree shown in Figure A. 2. Example A7 A decision tree with sequential decisions First Decision Point Second Decision Point $106,400 Favorable market (. 8) nt Payoffs $190,000 2 $49,20 0 1 Su re rve fav sult y (. 4 ora s 5) ble $106,400 la $190,000 ep $63,600 Favorable market (. 78) arg L $ 90,000 subtile 3 Unfavorable market(. 22) plant $ 30,000 No pla nt $ 10,000 Unfavorable market (. 22) vey $87,400 Favorable market (. 27) pla nt $190,000 $190,000 $ 90,000 $ 30,000 $ 10,000 y( rve Su ults e res ativ g ne t sur 4 Unfavorable market (. 73) (. 27) .55 arke $2,400 Con duct m L e arg $2,400 Favorable market 5 ) elfin plant nt Unfavorable market (. 73) No pla $49,200 $40,000 FIGURE A. 3 I Getz Products Decision Tree with Probabilities and EMVs ShownThe short parallel lines mean prune that branch, as it is less favorable than another available option and may be dropped. Do t no co nd uc ts ur ve y $10,000 Favorable market pla nt (. 5) $200,000 $180,000 $100,000 $ 20,000 $0 6 Unfavorable market (. 5) (. 5) L e arg $40,000 Favorable market 7 Small plant nt Unfavorable market (. 5) No pla DECISION TREES You can reduce complexity by viewing and solving a number of small er trees start at the end branches of a large one. Take one decision at a time. 681 The upper part of Figure A. 3 reflects the decision to conduct the market survey.State-of-nature node number 1 has 2 branches coming out of it. Let us say there is a 45% chance that the survey results will indicate a favorable market for the storage sheds. We also note that the probability is . 55 that the survey results will be contradict. The rest of the probabilities shown in parentheses in Figure A. 3 are all conditional probabilities. For example, . 78 is the probability of a favorable market for the sheds given a favorable result from the market survey. Of course, you would expect to find a high probability of a favorable market given that the research indicated that the market was good.Dont forget, though There is a chance that Getzs $10,000 market survey did not result in perfect or even reliable information. Any market research study is subject to error. In this case, there remains a 22% ch ance that the market for sheds will be unfavorable given positive survey results. Likewise, we note that there is a 27% chance that the market for sheds will be favorable given negative survey results. The probability is much higher, . 73, that the market will actually be unfavorable given a negative survey. Finally, when we look to the payoff column in Figure A. , we see that $10,000the cost of the marketing studyhas been subtracted from each of the top 10 tree branches. Thus, a large plant constructed in a favorable market would normally net a $200,000 profit. Yet because the market study was conducted, this figure is reduced by $10,000. In the unfavorable case, the loss of $180,000 would increase to $190,000. Similarly, conducting the survey and building no plant now results in a $10,000 payoff. With all probabilities and payoffs specified, we can start reason the expected monetary value of each branch.We begin at the end or right-hand side of the decision tree and work back tow ard the origin. When we finish, the best decision will be known. 1. Given favorable survey results, EMV (node 2) = (. 78)($190, 000) + (. 22)( ? $190, 000) = $106, 400 EMV (node 3) = (. 78)($90, 000) + (. 22)( ? $30, 000) = $63,600 The EMV of no plant in this case is plant should be built. Given negative survey results, $10,000. Thus, if the survey results are favorable, a large 2. EMV (node 4) = (. 27)($190, 000) + (. 73)( ? $190, 000) = ? $87, 400 EMV (node 5) = (. 27)($90, 000) + (. 73)( ? $30, 000) = $2, 400 The EMV of no plant is again $10,000 for this branch.Thus, given a negative survey result, Getz should build a small plant with an expected value of $2,400. Continuing on the upper part of the tree and moving backward, we compute the expected value of conducting the market survey. EMV(node 1) = (. 45)($106,400) + (. 55)($2,400) = $49,200 4. If the market survey is not conducted. EMV (node 6) = (. 50)($200, 000) + (. 50)( ? $180, 000) = $10, 000 EMV (node 7) = (. 50)($100, 00 0) + (. 50)( ? $20, 000) = $40, 000 The EMV of no plant is $0. Thus, building a small plant is the best choice, given the marketing research is not performed.Because the expected monetary value of conducting the survey is $49,200versus an EMV of $40,000 for not conducting the studythe best choice is to seek marketing information. If the survey results are favorable, Getz should build the large plant if they are unfavorable, it should build the small plant. 3. 5. Using Decision Trees in Ethical Decision Making Decision trees can also be a useful tool to aid ethical corporate decision making. The decision tree illustrated in Example A8, developed by Harvard Professor Constance Bagley, provides guidance as to how managers can both maximize shareholder value and behave ethically.The tree can be applied to any action a company contemplates, whether it is expanding operations in a developing country or reducing a workforce at home. 682 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S Smit hson Corp. is opening a plant in Malaysia, a country with much less stringent environmental laws than the U. S. , its home nation. Smithson can save $18 million in building the manufacturing facilityand boost its profitsif it does not install pollution-control equipment that is mandated in the U. S. but not in Malaysia.But Smithson also calculates that pollutants emitted from the plant, if unscrubbed, could damage the local fishing industry. This could cause a loss of millions of dollars in income as well as create health problems for local inhabitants. Example A8 Ethical decision making Action outcome Is it ethical? (Weigh the operation on employees, customers, suppliers, community versus shareholder benefit. ) Do it Ye s Ye No s Ye Is action legal? s Does action maximize company returns? Dont do it No No Is it ethical not to take action? (Weigh the harm to shareholders versus benefits to other stakeholders. Ye s Dont do it Do it, but notify appropriate parties Dont do it No FIGUR E A. 4 I Smithsons Decision Tree for Ethical Dilemma Source Modified from Constance E. Bagley, The Ethical Leaders Decision Tree, Harvard transaction Review (JanuaryFebruary 2003) 1819. Figure A. 4 outlines the choices management can consider. For example, if in managements best judgment the harm to the Malaysian community by building the plant will be greater than the loss in company returns, the response to the question Is it ethical? will be no.Now, say Smithson proposes building a somewhat different plant, one with pollution controls, despite a negative impact on company returns. That decision takes us to the branch Is it ethical not to take action? If the answer (for whatever reason) is no, the decision tree suggests proceeding with the plant but notifying the Smithson Board, shareholders, and others about its impact. Ethical decisions can be quite complex What happens, for example, if a company builds a polluting plant overseas, but this allows the company to sell a life-s aving drug at a lower cost about the world?Does a decision tree deal with all possible ethical dilemmas? Nobut it does provide managers with a framework for examining those choices. SUMMARY This module examines two of the most widely used decision techniquesdecision tables and decision trees. These techniques are especially useful for making decisions under risk. Many decisions in research and development, plant and equipment, and even new buildings and structures can be analyzed with these decision models. lines in inventory control, aggregate planning, maintenance, scheduling, and production control are just a few other decision table and decision tree applications.KEY TERMS Decision table (p. 675) Maximax (p. 676) Maximin (p. 676) Equally likely (p. 676) Expected monetary value (EMV) (p. 677) Expected value of perfect information (EVPI) (p. 678) Expected value under certainty (p. 678) Decision tree (p. 678) S O LV E D P RO B L E M S 683 USING SOFTWARE FOR DECISION MODELS Analyz ing decision tables is straightforward with Excel, Excel OM, and POM for Windows. When decision trees are involved, commercial packages such as DPL, Tree Plan, and Supertree provide flexibility, power, and ease. POM for Windows will also analyze trees but does not have graphic capabilities.Using Excel OM Excel OM allows decision makers to evaluate decisions quickly and to perform sensitivity analysis on the results. Program A. 1 uses the Getz data to illustrate input, output, and selected formulas needed to compute the EMV and EVPI values. envision the EMV for each alternative using = SUMPRODUCT(B$7C$7, B8C8). = MIN(B8C8) = MAX(B8C8) Find the best outcome for each measure using = MAX(G8G10). To calculate the EVPI, find the best outcome for each scenario. = MAX(B8B10) = SUMPRODUCT(B$7C$7, B14C14) = E14 E11 PROGRAM A. I Using Excel OM to Compute EMV and Other Measures for Getz Using POM for Windows POM for Windows can be used to calculate all of the information described in the deci sion tables and decision trees in this module. For details on how to use this software, please refer to Appendix IV. SOLVED PROBLEMS Solved Problem A. 1 Stella Yan Hua is considering the possibility of opening a small dress shop on Fairbanks Avenue, a few blocks from the university. She has located a good mall that attracts students. Her options are to open a small shop, a medium-sized shop, or no shop at all.The market for a dress shop can be good, average, or bad. The probabilities for these three possibilities are . 2 for a good market, . 5 for an average market, and . 3 for a bad market. The net profit or loss for the medium-sized or small shops for the various market conditions are given in the following table. Building no shop at all yields no loss and no gain. What do you recommend? ALTERNATIVES Small shop Medium-sized shop No shop Probabilities GOOD MARKET ($) 75,000 100,000 0 . 20 AVERAGE MARKET ($) 25,000 35,000 0 . 50 BAD MARKET ($) 40,000 60,000 0 . 30 684 MODULE A Solut ionD E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S The problem can be solved by computing the expected monetary value (EMV) for each alternative. EMV (Small shop) = (. 2)($75,000) + (. 5)($25,000) + (. 3)( $40,000) = $15,500 EMV (Medium-sized shop) = (. 2)($100,000) + (. 5)($35,000) + (. 3)( $60,000) = $19,500 EMV (No shop) = (. 2)($0) + (. 5)($0) + (. 3)($0) = $0 As you can see, the best decision is to build the medium-sized shop. The EMV for this alternative is $19,500. Solved Problem A. 2 mundane necessary for cases of Tidy Bowl cleaner at Ravinder Naths Supermarket has always been 5, 6, or 7 cases.Develop a decision tree that illustrates her decision alternatives as to whether to neckcloth 5, 6, or 7 cases. study is 5 cases Demand is 6 cases Demand is 7 cases Solution The decision tree is shown in Figure A. 5. St oc k5 ca se s Demand is 5 cases Demand is 6 cases Demand is 7 cases oc k7 ca Stock 6 cases St se s Demand is 5 cases Demand is 6 cases Demand is 7 cases FIGURE A. 5 I Demand at Ravinder Naths Supermarket INTERNET AND STUDENT CD-ROM EXERCISES Visit our Companion meshing site or use your student CD-ROM to help with this material in this module. On Our Companion Web site, www. prenhall. com/heizer Self-Study Quizzes Practice Problems meshing Homework Problems Internet Cases On Your Student CD-ROM PowerPoint Lecture Practice Problems Excel OM Excel OM Example Data File POM for Windows DISCUSSION QUESTIONS 1. Identify the six steps in the decision process. 2. Give an example of a good decision you made that resulted in a bad outcome. Also give an example of a bad decision you made that had a good outcome. Why was each decision good or bad? 3. What is the equally likely decision model? 4. Discuss the differences between decision making under certainty, under risk, and under uncertainty. . What is a decision tree? P RO B L E M S 6. Explain how decision trees might be used in several of the 10 OM decisions. 7. What is the expected value of perfect in formation? 8. What is the expected value under certainty? 9. Identify the five steps in analyzing a problem using a decision tree. 10. Why are the maximax and maximin strategies considered to be optimistic and pessimistic, respectively? 685 11. The expected value criterion is considered to be the rational criterion on which to base a decision. Is this true? Is it rational to consider risk? 12.When are decision trees most useful? PROBLEMS* P A. 1 a) b) c) Given the following conditional value table, determine the appropriate decision under uncertainty using Maximax. Maximin. Equally likely. STATES OF NATURE ALTERNATIVES Build new plant Subcontract Overtime Do nothing VERY FAVORABLE MARKET $350,000 $180,000 $110,000 $ 0 AVERAGE MARKET $240,000 $ 90,000 $ 60,000 $ 0 UNFAVORABLE MARKET $300,000 $ 20,000 $ 10,000 $ 0 P A. 2 Even though independent gasoline stations have been having a difficult time, Susan Helms has been intellection about starting her own independent gasoline station.Su sans problem is to decide how large her station should be. The annual returns will depend on both the size of her station and a number of marketing factors related to the oil industry and demand for gasoline. After a careful analysis, Susan developed the following table SIZE OF FIRST STATION Small Medium Large Very large GOOD MARKET ($) 50,000 80,000 100,000 300,000 FAIR MARKET ($) 20,000 30,000 30,000 25,000 POOR MARKET ($) 10,000 20,000 40,000 160,000 a) b) c) d) e) For example, if Susan constructs a small station and the market is good, she will pass a profit of $50,000.Develop a decision table for this decision. What is the maximax decision? What is the maximin decision? What is the equally likely decision? Develop a decision tree. Assume each outcome is equally likely, then find the highest EMV. Clay Whybark, a soft-drink vendor at intemperately gem Cafes annual Rockfest, created a table of conditional values for the various alternatives (stocking decision) and states of nat ure (size of crowd) STATES OF NATURE (DEMAND) ALTERNATIVES Large stock Average stock Small stock BIG $22,000 $14,000 $ 9,000 AVERAGE $12,000 $10,000 $ 8,000 SMALL $2,000 $6,000 $4,000P A. 3 If the probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0. 3 for a big demand, 0. 5 for an average demand, and 0. 2 for a small demand, determine the alternative that provides Clay Whybark the greatest expected monetary value (EMV). P A. 4 For Problem A. 3, compute the expected value of perfect information (EVPI). *Note OM and means the problem may be solved with POM for Windows means the problem may be solved with Excel P means the problem may be solved with POM for Windows and/or Excel OM. 686 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S H. Weiss, Inc. is considering building a thin new airport scanning device. His managers believe that there is a probability of 0. 4 that the ATR Co. will come out with a competitive product. If Weiss adds an assembly line for the product and ATR Co. d oes not follow with a competitive product, Weisss expected profit is $40,000 if Weiss adds an assembly line and ATR follows suit, Weiss still expects $10,000 profit. If Weiss adds a new plant addition and ATR does not produce a competitive product, Weiss expects a profit of $600,000 if ATR does compete for this market, Weiss expects a loss of $100,000. square off the EMV of each decision. For Problem A. 5, compute the expected value of perfect information. The following payoff table provides profits based on various possible decision alternatives and various levels of demand at Amber Gardners software firm DEMAND LOW Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 $10,000 $ 5,000 $ 2,000 HIGH $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 P A. 5 P P A. 6 A. 7 a) b) c) The probability of low demand is 0. 4, whereas the probability of high demand is 0. 6. What is the highest possible expected monetary value? What is the expected value under certainty?Calculate the expected value of perfect information for this si tuation. Leah Johnson, director of Legal Services of Brookline, wants to increase capacity to provide free legal advice but must decide whether to do so by hiring another full-time lawyer or by using part-time lawyers. The table infra shows the expected cost of the two options for three possible demand levels STATES OF NATURE ALTERNATIVES Hire full-time Hire part-time Probabilities LOW DEMAND $300 $ 0 . 2 ordinary DEMAND $500 $350 . 5 HIGH DEMAND $ 700 $1,000 . 3 P A. 8 Using expected value, what should Ms.Johnson do? P A. 9 Chung Manufacturing is considering the introduction of a family of new products. Long-term demand for the product group is somewhat predictable, so the manufacturer must be concerned with the risk of choosing a process that is inappropriate. subgenus Chen Chung is VP of operations. He can choose among batch manufacturing or custom manufacturing, or he can invest in group applied science. Chen wont be able to forecast demand accurately until after he makes the process choice. Demand will be classified into four compartments pitiable, fair, good, and excellent.The table below indicates the payoffs (profits) associated with each process/demand combination, as well as the probabilities of each long-term demand level. POOR Probability Batch Custom Group technology a) b) . 1 $ 200,000 $ 100,000 $1,000,000 FAIR . 4 $1,000,000 $ 300,000 $ 500,000 GOOD . 3 $1,200,000 $ 700,000 $ 500,000 EXCELLENT . 2 $1,300,000 $ 800,000 $2,000,000 Based on expected value, what choice offers the greatest gain? What would Chen Chung be willing to pay for a forecast that would accurately determine the level of demand in the future?Julie Reslers company is considering expansion of its current facility to meet increasing demand. If demand is high in the future, a major expansion will result in an additional profit of $800,000, but if demand is low there will be a loss of $500,000. If demand is high, a minor expansion will result in an increase in profits of $200,00 0, but if demand is low, there will be a loss of $100,000. The company has the option of not expanding. If there is a 50% chance demand will be high, what should the company do to maximize long-run average profits? P A. 10 P RO B L E M S 87 P A. 11 The University of Dallas bookstore stocks textbooks in preparation for sales each semester. It normally relies on departmental forecasts and preregistration records to determine how many copies of a text are needed. Preregistration shows 90 operations management students enrolled, but bookstore manager Curtis Ketterman has second thoughts, based on his intuition and some historical evidence. Curtis believes that the distribution of sales may range from 70 to 90 units, according to the following probability model Demand Probability 70 . 15 75 . 30 80 . 30 85 . 0 90 . 05 a) b) This textbook costs the bookstore $82 and sells for $112. Any unsold copies can be returned to the publisher, less a restocking fee and shipping, for a net refund of $36. Construct the table of conditional profits. How many copies should the bookstore stock to achieve highest expected value? Palmer tall mallow Company is a small manufacturer of several different cheese products. One product is a cheese spread sold to retail outlets. Susan Palmer must decide how many cases of cheese spread to manufacture each month. The probability that demand will be 6 cases is . , for 7 cases it is . 3, for 8 cases it is . 5, and for 9 cases it is . 1. The cost of every case is $45, and the price Susan gets for each case is $95. Unfortunately, any cases not sold by the end of the month are of no value as a result of spoilage. How many cases should Susan manufacture each month? Ronald Lau, chief engineer at South Dakota Electronics, has to decide whether to build a new state of the art processing facility. If the new facility works, the company could realize a profit of $200,000. If it fails, South Dakota Electronics could relapse $180,000.At this time, Lau e stimates a 60% chance that the new process will fail. The other option is to build a pilot plant and then decide whether to build a complete facility. The pilot plant would cost $10,000 to build. Lau estimates a 50-50 chance that the pilot plant will work. If the pilot plant works, there is a 90% probability that the complete plant, if it is built, will also work. If the pilot plant does not work, there is only a 20% chance that the complete project (if it is constructed) will work. Lau faces a dilemma. Should he build the plant? Should he build the pilot project and then make a decision?Help Lau by analyzing this problem. Karen Villagomez, president of Wright Industries, is considering whether to build a manufacturing plant in the Ozarks. Her decision is summarized in the following table ALTERNATIVES Build large plant Build small plant Dont build Market probabilities FAVORABLE MARKET $400,000 $ 80,000 $ 0 0. 4 UNFAVORABLE MARKET $300,000 $ 10,000 $ 0 0. 6 P A. 12 A. 13 P A. 14 a) b ) c) A. 15 Construct a decision tree. Determine the best strategy using expected monetary value (EMV). What is the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)?Deborah Kellogg buys Breathalyzer test sets for the Denver Police Department. The quality of the test sets from her two suppliers is indicated in the following table PERCENT DEFECTIVE 1 3 5 PROBABILITY LOOMBA TECHNOLOGY . 70 . 20 . 10 PROBABILITY STEWART-DOUGLAS ENTERPRISES . 30 . 30 . 40 FOR FOR a) b) For example, the probability of getting a batch of tests that are 1% defective from Loomba Technology is . 70. Because Kellogg orders 10,000 tests per order, this would mean that there is a . 7 probability of getting 100 defective tests out of the 10,000 tests if Loomba Technology is used to fill the order.A defective Breathalyzer test set can be repaired for $0. 50. Although the quality of the test sets of the second supplier, Stewart-Douglas Enterprises, is lower, it will sell an order of 10,000 test sets for $37 less than Lo omba. Develop a decision tree. Which supplier should Kellogg use? 688 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S Deborah Hollwager, a concessionaire for the Des Moines ballpark, has developed a table of conditional values for the various alternatives (stocking decision) and states of nature (size of crowd).STATES OF NATURE (SIZE OF CROWD) ALTERNATIVES Large inventory Average inventory Small inventory LARGE $20,000 $15,000 $ 9,000 AVERAGE $10,000 $12,000 $ 6,000 SMALL $2,000 $6,000 $5,000 P A. 16 a) b) If the probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0. 3 for a large crowd, 0. 5 for an average crowd, and 0. 2 for a small crowd, determine The alternative that provides the greatest expected monetary value (EMV). The expected value of perfect information (EVPI). Joseph Biggs owns his own sno-cone business and lives 30 miles from a California beach resort. The sale of sno-cones is highly dependent on his location and on the weather.At the resort, his profit will be $120 per day in fair weather, $10 per day in bad weather. At home, his profit will be $70 in fair weather and $55 in bad weather. Assume that on any particular day, the weather service suggests a 40% chance of sully weather. Construct Josephs decision tree. What decision is recommended by the expected value criterion? Kenneth Boyer is considering opening a bicycle shop in North Chicago. Boyer enjoys biking, but this is to be a business endeavor from which he expects to make a living. He can open a small shop, a large shop, or no shop at all.Because there will be a 5-year lease on the building that Boyer is theorizeing about using, he wants to make sure he makes the correct decision. Boyer is also thinking about hiring his old marketing professor to conduct a marketing research study to see if there is a market for his services. The results of such a study could be either favorable or unfavorable. Develop a decision tree for Boyer. Kenneth Boyer (of Problem A. 18) has done some analysi s of his bicycle shop decision. If he builds a large shop, he will earn $60,000 if the market is favorable he will lose $40,000 if the market is unfavorable.A small shop will return a $30,000 profit with a favorable market and a $10,000 loss if the market is unfavorable. At the present time, he believes that there is a 50-50 chance of a favorable market. His former marketing professor, Y. L. Yang, will charge him $5,000 for the market research. He has estimated that there is a . 6 probability that the market survey will be favorable. Furthermore, there is a . 9 probability that the market will be favorable given a favorable outcome of the study. However, Yang has warned Boyer that there is a probability of only . 12 of a favorable market if the marketing research results are not favorable.Expand the decision tree of Problem A. 18 to help Boyer decide what to do. Dick Holliday is not sure what he should do. He can build either a large video rental section or a small one in his drugst ore. He can also gather additional information or simply do nothing. If he gathers additional information, the results could suggest either a favorable or an unfavorable market, but it would cost him $3,000 to gather the information. Holliday believes that there is a 50-50 chance that the information will be favorable. If the rental market is favorable, Holliday will earn $15,000 with a large section or $5,000 with a small.With an unfavorable video-rental market, however, Holliday could lose $20,000 with a large section or $10,000 with a small section. Without gathering additional information, Holliday estimates that the probability of a favorable rental market is . 7. A favorable report from the study would increase the probability of a favorable rental market to . 9. Furthermore, an unfavorable report from the additional information would decrease the probability of a favorable rental market to . 4. Of course, Holliday could ignore these numbers and do nothing. What is your advice to Holliday? P A. 17 a) b) A. 18 A. 19 A. 20 A. 21 a) b) A. 22 Problem A. dealt with a decision facing Legal Services of Brookline. Using the data in that problem, provide The appropriate decision tree showing payoffs and probabilities. The best alternative using expected monetary value (EMV). The city of Segovia is contemplating building a second airport to relieve congestion at the main airport and is considering two potential drop sites, X and Y. Hard Rock Hotels would like to purchase terra firma to build a hotel at the new airport. The value of land has been rising in hope and is expected to skyrocket once the city decides between sites X and Y. Consequently, Hard Rock would like to purchase land now.Hard Rock will sell the land if the city chooses not to locate the airport nearby. Hard Rock has four choices (1) buy land at X, (2) buy land at Y, (3) buy land at both X and Y, or (4) do nothing. Hard Rock has collected the following data (which are in millions of euros) SITE X menses purchase price Profits if airport and hotel built at this site Sales price if airport not built at this site 27 45 9 SITE Y 15 30 6 a) b) Hard Rock determines there is a 45% chance the airport will be built at X (hence, a 55% chance it will be built at Y). Set up the decision table. What should Hard Rock decide to do to maximize total net profit?C A S E S T U DY A. 23 689 Louisiana is busy designing new lottery scratch-off games. In the latest game, Bayou Boondoggle, the player is instructed to scratch off one spot A, B, or C. A can reveal bankruptcy, Win $1, or Win $50. B can reveal Loser or Take a Second Chance. C can reveal Loser or Win $500. On the second chance, the player is instructed to scratch off D or E. D can reveal Loser or Win $1. E can reveal Loser or Win $10. The probabilities at A are . 9, . 09, and . 01. The probabilities at B are . 8 and . 2. The probabilities at C are . 999 and . 001. The probabilities at D are . 5 and . 5.Finally, the probabiliti es at E are . 95 and . 05. Draw the decision tree that represents this scenario. riding habit proper symbols and label all branches clearly. Calculate the expected value of this game. INTERNET HOMEWORK PROBLEMS See our Companion Web site at www. prenhall. com/heizer for these additional grooming problems A. 24 through A. 31. CASE STUDY Tom Tuckers Liver Transplant Tom Tucker, a robust 50-year-old executive living in the northern suburbs of St. Paul, has been diagnosed by a University of Minnesota internist as having a decaying liver. Although he is otherwise healthy, Tuckers liver problem could prove fatal if left untreated.Firm research data are not yet available to predict the likelihood of survival for a man of Tuckers age and condition without surgery. However, based on her own experience and recent medical journal articles, the internist tells him that if he elects to avoid surgical treatment of the liver problem, chances of survival will be approximately as follows only a 60 % chance of living 1 year, a 20% chance of surviving for 2 years, a 10% chance for 5 years, and a 10% chance of living to age 58. She places his probability of survival beyond age 58 without a liver change to be extremely low.The transplant operation, however, is a serious surgical procedure. Five percent of patients die during the operation or its recovery stage, with an additional 45% demise during the first year. Twenty percent survive for 5 years, 13% survive for 10 years, and 8%, 5%, and 4% survive, respectively, for 15, 20, and 25 years. Discussion Questions 1. Do you think that Tucker should select the transplant operation? 2. What other factors might be considered? CASE STUDY travel Right Corp. After retiring as a physician, bob Guthrie became an avid downhill skier on the steep slopes of the Utah Rocky Mountains.As an amateur inventor, curtsey was always looking for something new. With the recent deaths of several celebrity skiers, sour grass knew he could use his cre ative mind to make skiing safer and his bank account larger. He knew that many deaths on the slopes were caused by head injuries. Although ski helmets have been on the market for some time, most skiers consider them boring and basically ugly. As a physician, Bob knew that some type of new ski helmet was the answer. Bobs biggest challenge was to invent a helmet that was attractive, safe, and fun to wear.Multiple colors and using the latest fashion designs would be musts. After years of skiing, Bob knew that many skiers believe that how you look on the slopes is more important than how you ski. His helmets would have to look good and fit in with current fashion trends. But attractive helmets were not enough. Bob had to make the helmets fun and useful. The name of the new ski helmet, Ski Right, was sure to be a winner. If Bob could come up with a good idea, he believed that there was a 20% chance that the market for the Ski Right helmet would be excellent. The chance of a good market s hould be 40%.Bob also knew that the market for his helmet could be only average (30% chance) or even poor (10% chance). The idea of how to make ski helmets fun and useful came to Bob on a gondola ride to the top of a mountain. A busy executive on the gondola ride was on his cell phone trying to complete a complicated merger. When the executive got off the gondola, he dropped the phone and it was crushed by the gondola mechanism. Bob decided that his new ski helmet would have a built-in cell phone and an AM/FM stereo radio. All the electronics could be operated by a control pad worn on a skiers arm or leg.Bob decided to try a small pilot project for Ski Right. He enjoyed being retired and didnt want a failure to cause him to go back to work. After some research, Bob found Progressive Products (PP). The company was willing to be a partner in developing the Ski Right and sharing any profits. If the market was excellent, Bob would net $5,000 per month. With a good market, Bob would net $2,000. An average market would result in a loss of $2,000, and a poor market would mean Bob would be out $5,000 per month. Another option for Bob was to have Leadville Barts (LB) make the helmet.The company had grand experience in making bicycle helmets. Progressive would then take the helmets made by Leadville Barts and do the rest. Bob had a greater risk. He estimated that he could lose $10,000 per month in a poor market or $4,000 in an average market. A good market for Ski Right would result in $6,000 profit for Bob, and an excellent market would mean a $12,000 profit per month. (continued) 690 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S cellular to make the phones, and TalRad to make the AM/FM stereo radios. Bob could then hire some friends to assemble everything and market the finishedSki Right helmets. With this final alternative, Bob could realize a net profit of $55,000 a month in an excellent market. Even if the market was just good, Bob would net $20,000. An average market, however, would mean a loss of $35,000. If the market was poor Bob would lose $60,000 per month. A third option for Bob was to use TalRad (TR), a radio company in Tallahassee, Florida. TalRad had extensive experience in making military radios. Leadville Barts could make the helmets, and Progressive Products could do the rest of production and distribution. Again, Bob would be taking on greater risk.A poor market would mean a $15,000 loss per month, and an average market would mean a $10,000 loss. A good market would result in a net profit of $7,000 for Bob. An excellent market would return $13,000 per month. Bob could also have aeriform Cellular (CC) develop the cell phones. Thus, another option was to have Celestial make the phones and have Progressive do the rest of the production and distribution. Because the cell phone was the most expensive component of the helmet, Bob could lose $30,000 per month in a poor market. He could lose $20,000 in an average market.If the marke t was good or excellent, Bob would see a net profit of $10,000 or $30,000 per month, respectively. Bobs final option was to forget about Progressive Products entirely. He could use Leadville Barts to make the helmets, Celestial Discussion Questions 1. What do you recommend? 2. Compute the expected value of perfect information. 3. Was Bob completely logical in how he approached this decision problem? Source B. Render, R. M. Stair, and M. Hanna, Quantitative Analysis for Management, 9th ed. Upper accuse River, N. J. learner Hall (2006). Reprinted by permission of Prentice Hall, Inc.ADDITIONAL CASE STUDIES See our Companion Web site at www. prenhall. com/heizer for these additional free case studies Arctic, Inc. A refrigeration company has several major options with regard to capacity and expansion. Toledo Leather Company This firm is trying to select new equipment based on potential costs. BIBLIOGRAPHY Brown, R. V. The State of the Art of Decision Analysis. Interfaces 22, 6 (No vemberDecember 1992) 514. Collin, Ian. Scale Management and Risk Assessment for Deepwater Developments. World Oil 224, no. 5 (May 2003) 62. Hammond, J. S. , R.L. Kenney, and H. Raiffa. The enigmatical Traps in Decision Making. 76, no. 5 Harvard Business Review (SeptemberOctober 1998) 4760. Jbuedj, C. Decision Making under Conditions of Uncertainty. Journal of Financial Planning (October 1997) 84. Keefer, Donald L. Balancing dose Safety and Efficacy for a Go/NoGo Decision. Interfaces 34, no. 2 (MarchApril 2004) 113116. Kirkwood, C. W. An Overview of Methods for Applied Decision Analysis. Interfaces 22, 6 (NovemberDecember 1992) 2839. Perdue, Robert K. , William J. McAllister, Peter V. King, and Bruce G. Berkey. Valuation of R and D Projects Using Options Pricing and Decision Analysis Models. Interfaces 29, 6 (November 1999) 5774. Raiffa, H. Decision Analysis Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Certainty. Reading, MA Addison-Wesley (1968). Render, B. , R. M. Stair, Jr. , an d R. Balakrishnan. Managerial Decision Modeling with Spreadsheets. 2nd ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ Prentice Hall (2006). Render, B. , R. M. Stair Jr. , and M. Hanna. Quantitative Analysis for Management, 9th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ Prentice Hall (2006). Schlaifer, R. Analysis of Decisions Under Certainty. New York McGraw-Hill (1969).

Mandarin Oriental Hotel

mandarin oriental person Hotel, capital of Tailand mandarin o head for the hills tree eastern, capital of siamese connectionland is a five-star hotel in capital of Thailand owned in part and managed by mandarin orange tree eastern Hotel Group. Located on the banks of the Chao Phraya River, the original organise was the first hotel built in Siameseland when it opened as The oriental in 1879. Today, the hotel is one of two flagship properties of Mandarin Oriental Hotel Group and is k flatn for service, which consistently places it among the worlds best hotels Background and HistoryWhen Siam opened to foreign trade afterwards the signing of the Bowring Treaty the sailors that manned the ships which conveyed this trade though Bangkok required accommodation on shore. To meet this demand, Captain Dyers, an American and his partner J. E. Barnes opened a hotel called the Oriental Hotel. This burnt down in 1865. Several eld later a union of Danish captains opened a replacement hotel . In the 1970s the board of the Oriental Hotel decided with the opening of the new River Wing, upon 1876 as the official establishment date of the Oriental Hotel.In 1881 29-year-old Hans Niels Andersen, a Danish businessman, bought the premises. His various business ventures led to him becoming a much respected member of the westbound community in Siam. Andersen identified a need for a respectable hotel with good accommodation, a bar and a western menu to meet the call for of travellers and businessmen visiting to Siam. Encouraged by Prince Prisdang Jumsai, Hans Niels Andersen formed a partnership with Peter Andersen and Frederick Kinch to build a luxury hotel. Designed by Cardu & Rossi, a group of local Italian architects, the Oriental was the first luxury hotel in Siam.The hotel opened on 19 May 1887 with 40 d tumesces and romps which at the era had never been seen in Siam outside of a royal palace a second floor (during a time of single-storey bungalows), 1 carpeted hallway s, smoking and ladies agencys, a billiards room and a bar capable of seating 50 patrons. To ensure the success of the restaurant and a satisfactory level of service the owners lured the chef and butler remote from the French Consulate to work at the hotel. The first major event that the hotel hosted was a swaggering banquet on 24 May 1888 to celebrate the Golden Jubilee of Queen Victoria.After in person inspecting the hotel? s facilities in December 1890, fag Chulalongkorn decided the hotel was up to the standard necessary to host visiting royalty. The hotels first royal guests were the entourage of Crown Prince Nicholas of Russia, (later czar Nicholas) in April 1891. A succession of owners followed until Marie Maire took over the ownership in 1910. She immediately went to work revamping the hotel. She sold it in 1932. During the Second World War the hotel was leased to the Japanese Army who intentd it as an officer? club (who under the management of the Imperial Hotel of Toky o). At the end of the war it was recitationd to house liberated affiliate prisoners of war, who in the belief that it was a Japanese piazza ransacked the building. At the end of the war a half a dozen-person partnership each contributed US$250 to buy the hotel. The partnership consisted of Germaine Krull (18971985), Prince Bhanu, General Chai Prateepasen, Pote Sarasin (a Thai lawyer) and John Webster and Jim Thompson, two Americans who had served in the Organization for Strategic Security (OSS) and who had stayed on in Thailand.Krull took the position of manager in 1947, despite no prior pose in the hotel field. Born in Poland, she had been best known as a photographer during the 1920s before service in the peace-loving as a war correspondent for Agence France Presse. Badly run down after its wartime service, the partnership immediately began restoration and restocking of the hotel which offered to put Thompson? s an opportunity to use his architectural and artistic abilities. The hotel reopened for business on 12 June 1947.Krull turned out to be a natural hotelier and during her reign restored the hotel to it position as the chancellor hotel in Thailand. Thompson soon left the partnership over a plan to build a new wing, though he stayed on in dorm at the hotel for near time. To compete with popular clubs and a new local bar called Chez Eve, Krull established the Bamboo Bar, which soon became one of the leading bars in Bangkok. 2 In 1958 the ten-storey Garden Wing was built. It featured the city? s first elevator and was home to the Le Normandie Restaurant. In 1967, fearful thatThailand would fall to the communists, Krull sold her fate to Italthai which at the time was well on its way to becoming one of the country? s most significant mercantile groups eventually totally or so 60 companies involved in almost all aspects of the Thai economy. Italthai had been founded in the mid-fifties by Giorgio Berlingieri, an Italian born in Genoa and Dr Chaijudh Karnasuta, a Thai. Berlingieri felt that the Oriental had begun to rest on its laurels and had dropped behind its competitors. He urgencyed to develop the Oriental into one of the best hotels in the world.Too involved with his various businesses to devote time to the project, Berlingieri in November 1967 appointed 30-year-old Kurt Wachtveitl (1937 ), at that time manager of Nipa Lodge (a hotel that Italthai owned in Pattaya), as general manager of the Oriental. In 1972 the hotel acquired an adjacent quality upon which it erected the 350-room River Wing. Mandarin Oriental Hotel Group and Mandarin Oriental, Bangkok The Group began with the opening of its flagship property, The Mandarin, in Hong Kong in 1963, which soon built up a reputation for high- go downn service.In 1974, Mandarin International Hotels Limited was formed as a hotel management company. The Groups intention was to expand into Asia and operate hotels that would reflect the standard of service synonymous with their property in Hong Kong. In 1974 the companys hotel interests expanded further by dint of the acquisition of a 49% interest in The Oriental, Bangkok. The Oriental, built in 1876, was already a legendary property and acknowledged as one of the worlds great hotels.Through the management of both The Mandarin in Hong Kong and The Oriental, Bangkok, the Group was in an unusual position of having two flagship hotels whose label represented the best in hospitality. In 1985, the Company rationalized its corporate structure by combining these two far-celebrated properties under a common name, Mandarin Oriental Hotel Group. 3 The hotel opened its renowned Oriental Spa in 1993 and finished a complete renovation of its entourage and roomss in 2003. In 2006, The Oriental, Bangkok celebrated its 130th anniversary.In September 2008, the hotel formally changed its name from The Oriental, Bangkok to Mandarin Oriental, Bangkok. Mandarin Oriental Hotel Group Asia Continent 1. Mandarin Oriental, Ban gkok 2. Mandarin Oriental, Dhara Dhevi, Chiang Mai 3. Mandarin Oriental, Hong Kong 4. The Landmark Mandarin Oriental, Hong Kong 5. The Excelsior, Hong Kong 6. Mandarin Oriental, Jakarta 7. Mandarin Oriental, Kuala Lumper 8. Mandarin Oriental, Macao 9. Mandarin Oriental, Manila 10. The Oriental, Singapore 11. Mandarin Oriental, Tokyo 12. Mandarin Oriental, Sanya 13. Mandarin Oriental, Lago Nam Van, Macau 14.Mandarin Oriental, Guangzhou 15. Mandarin Oriental, Taipei America Continent 1. Elbow Beach, Bermuda 2. Mandarin Oriental, New York 3. Mandarin Oriental, Miami 4. Mandarin Oriental, San Francisco 5. Mandarin Oriental, Washington D. C. 6. Mandarin Oriental, Riviera Maya, Mexico 7. Mandarin Oriental, Boston 8. Mandarin Oriental, golden Cayman 4 9. Mandarin Oriental, Chicago 10. Mandarin Oriental, Las Vegas 11. Mandarin Oriental, Dallas 12. Mandarin Oriental, Dellis Cay, Turks Europe Continent 1. Mandarin Oriental, Du Rhone, Geneva 2. Mandarin Oriental, Hyde Park, London 3.Mandarin Oriental, Munich 4. Mandarin Oriental, Prague, Czechoslovakian 5. Mandarin Oriental, Barcelona 6. Mandarin Oriental, Jnan Rahma, Marrakech 7. Mandarin Oriental, Paris Hotel Map 5 The hotel located on the bank of the Chao Phraya River. The Hotel The hotel contains 358 rooms and 35 unique suites. The two-story Authors Wing, the tho remaining structure of the original 19th century hotel, houses suites named after Joseph Conrad, Somerset Maugham, Noel Coward and James Michener. The River Wing contains deluxe two sleeping accommodation suites named after former guests r personages associated with the hotel including Barbara Cartland, Gore Vidal, whole meal flour Greene, Wilbur Smith, John le Carre, Jim Thompson, Norman Mailer, Thai author Kukrit Pramoj. Other suites be named after ships associated with the early Bangkok trade such as Otago (once captained by Joseph Conrad), HMS Melita, Vesatri and Natuna. 6 Accommodations populates All of rooms in the River Wing or Garden Wing Rooms have their own personalities. They have been intentional with traditional Thai flair and luxuriously appointed for your utmost comfort.The standard of in room facilities be as follow ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Private Butler service Work desk with in-built worldwide plugs and Internet access plugs Complimentary fax auto/printer on request 3 IDD telephones with two lines Individual thermostatic controller for air-conditioning and humidity contrasted control TV with on command in-house movies Bose CD player and CD library Radio Personal mini bar refrigerator Fresh harvest-time and flowers day-to-day Large in-room safe wide bathroom with separate bathtub and walk-in shower and double vanity Hair dryer Bathrobe and slippers Rooms can Size (Sqm/Sqf) View Partial Rate (USD) Superior Room King/Twin 40/428 River/Main Wing 425 Relax and take in the partial river view in the fine surroundings of teak wood and traditional Thai silks. Thailand? s signature fabric is anywhere adding to the sense of luxury. Fresh harvesting and flowers refreshed daily. A personal butler is at your service. Full River/ Main Deluxe Room King/Twin 40/428 Wing 465 Located on higher floors, our Deluxe Rooms offer full river views and sumptuous comfort.The elegant decor features traditional Thai elements such as genuine teak article of furniture, ravishing silks, and a daily deli rattling of fresh exotic results and flowers. Guests will withal enjoy enhanced bathroom amenities, with a personal butler at your service. River await/ Premier Room King/Twin 35/377 Garden Wing 495 Elements of the hotel? s long and illustrious heritage are still to be seen in these colonial-style rooms, which feature vintage chandeliers, evocative artwork and parquet flooring, all complemented by ottomans and comfortable sofas, in a mix that is satisfyingly eclectic.The floor plan changes from room to room just about are split-level, with a bedroom above and seating area below. All Premier Rooms enjoy full river views, and some feature a private conservatory. River & City/ Mandarin Room King 63/678 Main Wing 545 8 These rooms enjoy a strong flow of natural daylight, thanks to floor-to-ceiling windows and a balcony that partially overlooks the river. They also have a spacious seating area, with comfortable sofas and a coffee table. Throughout, the furnishings are upholstered in Thai silk, harmoniously designed in neutral colors. 3/678 or State Room King/Twin 67/721 River / Main Wing 695 These spacious rooms are located between the 3rd and 9th floors of the River Wing and offer unobstructed river views. A teakwoodpanelled hallway leads guests into the room, which is decorated in traditional Thai style with Cimmerian teakwood furnishings and bright Thai silks. Large floor-to-ceiling windows encircle the room, which also features a balcony from which to watch the bustling river activity. in that respect is a sitting area within the bedroom featuring a comfortable sofa and coffee t able. radix-to-ceiling windows surround a semiprivate work area, which has a large working desk and every amenity you need to use up business in comfort. Suites The standard of in room facilities for Suites ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Private Butler service Work desk with in-built international plugs and Internet access plugs Complimentary fax machine/printer on request 3 IDD telephones with two lines Individual thermostatic controller for air-conditioning and humidity Remote control TV with on command in-house movies Bose CD player and CD library 9 ? ? ? ? ? ? ?Radio Personal mini bar refrigerator Fresh fruit and flowers daily Large in-room safe Spacious bathroom with separate bathtub and walk-in shower and double vanity Hair dryer Bathrobe and slippers Rooms Bed Size (Sqm/Sqf) View River / Rate (USD) administrator Suite King 55/592 Main Wing 675 Located in the River Wing, these elegant and spacious one-bedroom suites are flooded with natural daylight and offer majestic river views the perfec t setting in which to relax and unwind. Approximately 55 square metres/592 square feet. River / Family Two-Bedroom Suites King & 2 Twins 95/1,022 Main Wing 800These elegant and spacious suites are ideal for families who will appreciate the extra space and amenities. thither? s a separate sitting area for family gatherings as well as a desk, which complements the exotic finery on display in the traditional Thai style decor of dark teak and silk furnishings. Light floods in through the floor-to-ceiling windows, ideal for admiring the beautiful river view. River / Authors Suites King/Twin 99/985 Main Wing 1,000 10 Located in the River Wing, these individually designed and decorated suites re tributes to some of the great literary figures that have stayed with us over the years. In their names, decor and ambience, they each reflect accents of the author? s personality. All feature floor-to-ceiling windows offering panoramic river views, a balcony, spacious sitting room, a large bathroo m with separate bathtub and walk-in shower as well as a pulverize room off the living room many an(prenominal) also have a walk-in closet. Fresh flowers and fruit are delivered to your suite daily with the run of your own personal butler. River / Deluxe 2-Bedroom Theme Suites King & 2 Twins 125/1344 Main Wing 1,500The lavish two-bedroom suites feature many rich enhancive details, including brass-inlaid teak furniture and soft furnishings that are upholstered in sumptuous Thai silk. Immaculate parquet floors and hand-woven Persian carpets further accentuate these lavish suites. Located on the 16th floor of the River Wing, these suites offer spectacular views of the River of Kings and the City of Angels. Garden / Joseph Conrad Suite King snow/1070 Original Wing 1,500 A giant among authors, Joseph Conrad wrote novels considered by many to be the greatest in the English language. It? only fitting then that our Joseph Conrad Suite should be a remarkable space filled with special det ails. The suite is the only one in our Authors Wing with its own open terrace, which is attached to the spacious living room and 11 overlooks our lush gardens and the river. The gently sophisticated decor, including conservatively selected furnishings and objects d? art, is the perfect sanctuary from bustling Bangkok where you? re every need is attended to by your personal butler. Garden / Heritage Authors Suites Queen 100/1070 Original Wing 1,300 Located in the hotel? s original Authors Wing, the magnificent HeritageAuthors Suites celebrate three of the great writers who have stayed here. Reflecting the colonial character of the original place of the hotel, each of the three suites Somerset Maugham, Noel Coward and James Michener feature spacious bedrooms and lounge areas as well as Victorian-style marble bathrooms. The three suites are individually designed to reflect the Author? s distinct personality. Fresh flowers and fruit are delivered daily by your personal butler ready to anticipate and attend to your every need. Garden / Original Adisorn Lodge Heritage Suites Queen 100/1070 Wing 800 Located in the hotel? original Authors Wing, The Adisorn Lodge celebrates the life and times of our former Chairman. privileged colours and high ceilings, as well as a charming Victorian-style bathroom make this a very unique and historic suite. Fresh flowers and fruit are delivered to your suite daily with the services of your own personal butler. Top Floor Main Siam Suites Twin 130/1398 Wing 3,000 12 invigorate by the beauty of Northern Thailand, the two-bedroom suite features rich furnishings in Thai silk, with the living and eat areas panelled in teak to match the luxurious flooring. Main Wing Selandia Suites King 185/1989 3,000A beautiful suite that evokes the glamour of life aboard the legendary ship The Selandia, with teak floors and walls, ivory cotton draperies and brass-cornered tables, classically but richly decorated. Top Floor Main Royal Oriental Suite s King 295/3157 Wing 4,500 The timeless Royal Oriental suite, renowned for its beautiful decor and impressive artworks, has served as the home away from home of royalty, world leaders, and countless celebrities. Facilities The Oriental Spa The multi-award winning Oriental Spa is the ultimate temple of well-being for many guests and VIPs including European royalty, Hollywood legends and political stars.Visit the Oriental Spa and experience the ultimate rejuvenation of body, mind and soul. 13 The Ayurvedic Penthouse India? s 5000 year-old science of wholesome living, Ayurveda touches every aspect of life physical, mental, social and spiritual. Ayurvedic Treatments are usually recommended as a course of three days but guests will find individual treatments beneficial and with equally long lasting effects. Yoga academic term The Oriental Spa offers an extensive range of Yoga sessions conducted by yogic expert Neelam Khatri. The Oriental? Yoga programmes run the gamut from lively group sessions to one- on-one private sessions, each created to suit the precise needs and convenience of guests and yoga lovers. Health concentrate on The Health Centre has recently been expanded to provide the utmost in luxury for sports and health enthusiasts alike, in a tranquil environment. The renovation includes stateof-the-art equipment. Pro 14 The Oriental Thai Cooking School The Oriental Thai Cooking School operates every Monday to Saturday from 9am-1230pm with a renowned curriculum that teaches the secrets of purely authentic Thai food.Learn everything from basic ingredients to local techniques from our highly regarded instructors who are not only talented experts in Thai cuisine, they are also all-time favorites with our guests. Sanook Oriental Kid? s Club Open for children from the ages 3 to 14 years old the Sanook Oriental Kid? s Club keeps our youngest guests diverted throughout their holidays with an action-packed program featuring an endless variety of outdoorsy activ ities, arts and crafts projects, and games that are fun, educational and culturally enriching.All are under the supervision of our Kid? s Coordinators. The Oriental Boutique We are delighted to introduce the opening of The Oriental Boutique, which carries a full range of hotel amenities and gifts that make the perfect souvenirs to take home to love ones. The Oriental Boutique also offers exclusive products such as Oriental Polo shirts, Oriental stuffed animals, the exquisite cutlery and tableware used at the newly renovated China House, our famed cotton and silk bathrobes, and many other items unique to Mandarin Oriental, Bangkok. 5 Sports Tennis Day or night, you can practice your backhand on our two outdoor tennis courts. And don? t worry, if you forgot your racquet, we? ll happily provide one for you to use. Squash Our fitness centre also has one squash court available for rent. The renting fee of THB 700++ includes equipment. Jogging The Oriental Health Centre has an outdoor jo gging track that runs right along the tennis courts, perfect for an early morning or evening run. Guests can also use the jogging map that we provide for a jaunt that goes further afield.Swimming Perhaps nothing is more enticing after an excursion into the city heat than a dip in a pool. At the Oriental Health Club the prospect is doubly irresistible. Those who just want to bask in the sun and relax will love our new wading pool, which is surrounded by cabanas. Our newly upgraded big pool finished in rich mosaics and natural stones as well as new lighting enhancements, 25 metres long and is ideal for swimming laps. Both pools are open daily from 6am to 8pm.Thai Boxing Muay Thai, as Thai boxing is known here, is growing in popularity around the world and is considered an especially tough martial art. Boxers can use almost any part of their bodies in the contest, which can be quick and brutal. The main venue for matches is Lumpini Stadium. Fights are every Tuesday and Friday 630pm to1 1pm 16 and Saturdays 5pm-8pm and 830pm to midnight. Prices range from THB 220-800. Private Thai Boxing lessons can also be arranged with at least one-day prior notice via our concierge. Prices are approximately THB 5,400 for 2 hours.Restaurants and Entertainments There are nine venues to choose from, offering a wide range of international cuisine. Le Normandie Considered by many to be the finest French dining experience in Asia. Patrons choose from a set menu or full French a la carte. Lord Jims This quintessential seafood restaurant offers a very popular international lunch time buffet and an a la carte dinner. Sala Rim Naam Sala Rim Naam serves a buffet lunch and set Thai dinner with traditional dance show, while the Terrace Rim Naam offers a la carte Thai dining by the River. 17The China House Inspired by the spirited 1930s Shanghai Art Deco period featuring authentic Cantonese flavors with present-day(a) variations in presentation. Riverside Terrace The dinner buffet served he re has an amazing woof of grilled seafood and meat plus the best Europe, the Middle East and Asia has to offer. The Verandah This casually elegant restaurant offers international all-day a la carte dining with a huge selection of freshly baked cakes. Its also the place for breakfast. 18 Ciao Dine under the stars at this riverside venue, which serves the city? finest pizza from our wood -fired oven and the very best Italian ice creams. Authors Lounge On the ground floor of the Authors Wing, this lounge has old colonial charm, with its white rattan furniture and English afternoon tea. The Bamboo Bar Known as the best live jazz spot in town, Bamboo Bar serves an extensive menu of cocktails and drinks in a relaxing, jungle-like ambience. 19 LEspace by Mandarin Oriental, Bangkok This all-day international dining venue is the perfect way to relax and recuperate in the midst of your obtain day. Siam Paragon? most stylish contemporary cafe epitomises both the elegance and the culinary exc ellence of the legendary Mandarin Oriental, Bangkok. Set amid cream marble peeing gardens, L? Espace by Mandarin Oriental, Bangkok has an all-day menu that caters to every whim, offering everything from crisp salads or sandwiches, to home-made pastas, soups, noodles and tacos. Sip on refreshing cocktails or savour some of the splendid desserts, including delectable pastries, puddings and our unforgettable New York vanilla cheesecake. 20 Services Conference and Banqueting Rooms The Royal Ballroom This is both a grand and entirely versatile space.You can enjoy its historic appearance, with high ceiling, extravagant chandelier and river life murals, alternatively it can be transformed into the most contemporary scene to reflect your event theme.. The ballroom can be set up as one large space or reconfigured into three smaller rooms (Chao Phra Ya room , Ta Jeen room and Maeklong room) to create a journey? for delegates to travel through, or simply separated for break out rooms. 21 Th e Embassy Room Designed and appointed in the same opulent style as the Ballroom, this is the smaller sized option but with the same luxurious ambience.Executive Boardroom find out within the business centre our boardroom has plenty of daylight, with windows overlooking the main entrance. The Regency Room Recently restored to their former elegance with hand-woven Thai silk panels in a turn-of-the-century French pattern and full length mirrors at either end. The set up is a residential living room, with comfortable sofas however it can be re arranged for cocktails or a private dinner. French windows open on to the cool Authors? Terrace. The Authors Lounge A sophisticated atmosphere in a summery, colonial setting perfect for informal meetings.It is located in the Author? s Wing, within the hotel? s original site, and is named in tribute to the many famous writers who have stepped through the doors of Mandarin Oriental, Bangkok over the years, from Joseph Conrad and Somerset Maug ham to Noel Coward and James Michener. Recently renovated to its former glory, delicate, whitewashed rattan furniture with handpainted upholstery and Siamese umbrellas now grace the lounge, amid towering bamboo and palm trees. It? s the perfect place for a relaxed event, romantic wedding reception or cocktail party for 150-200 guests. 2 Business Center Opening hours are from 730am-11pm Monday to Friday, and 8am10pm on Weekends and National Holidays. We have four work invests available for delegates use three PCs and one Mac. Each station is equipped with a laser printer and web camera, access points for electric data and high speed internet sockets for guests who would like to use their own laptops. There are two boardrooms, one larger for up to 18 delegates, a light space overlooking the hotel entrance and another smaller boardroom for six delegates. ? ? ? ?Secretarial services Translation, both written and simultaneous Video conferencing equipment Butler service is available with a simple press button Thai nuance Programs Whether for business or purely for your own enjoyment, there? s not a more perfect setting to learn about the intricacies of Thai husbandry than Mandarin Oriental, Bangkok and in one of our highly acclaimed courses. You? ll be following in the footsteps of the many 23 diplomats and journalists who have attended them to enhance their knowledge of our vibrant and fascinating culture.Enrich your joy and understanding of the Kingdom of Thailand during your stay at Mandarin Oriental, Bangkok. There? s nowhere in the world like Thailand. As the only country in Southeast Asia never to be colonized, its deep cultural roots are fascinating, yet often mysterious to many visitors. That? s why we created our comprehensive cultural programme, enlisting renowned professors and scholars from leading universities. For more than fifteen years, their afternoon lectures, daily from Monday to Friday, have unlocked the mysteries of the Kingdom for thousands of our guests.Guests have included many diplomats, journalists and travel writers, who take pleasure in understanding more about Thai culture. Programmes Thai Ways Monday 2pm-4pm, Klong Tour 320pm (Minimum 3 persons). Thai Beliefs Tuesday 2pm-4pm (Minimum 3 persons). Thai Dance and Music Wednesday 1pm-3pm (Minimum 5 persons). Contemporary Thai civilisation Thursday 1pm-3pm (Minimum 5 persons). Thai Art and Architecture Friday 2pm-4pm (Minimum 5 persons). Thai Culture Programme Classes are THB 4,000 per person per class. 24 Childrens Day Care CentreOffering many facilities and supervised fun-filled to keep young guest from newlyborn babies to 8 years old, employed and amused while their parents spend the extra time by themselves whether it is for a relaxing spa treatment or romantic dinner. Open daily from 3 p. m. to 11 p. m. The Oriental Shop at the shopping centers The oriental shops are famous for their tempting array of freshly baked breads and pantries, home-made chocolates, s moked meats, aromatic cheese and wonderful selection of salads, sandwiches, ice-creams and the ground blended coffee.The shops open daily at Emporium, Central Chidlom and Siam Paragon. Limousine Service Mandarin Oriental? s limousine are available 24 hours for either a short trip in the city or longer journey. The qualified and experienced chauffeurs are English communicate and all vehicles are fully ensured by the BMW series 7. 25 References www. mandarinoriental. com/bangkok/ Banqueting Department, Mandarin Oriental Hotel, Bangkok Training Department, Mandarin Oriental Hotel, Bangkok 26